BibTex format
@article{Ndagijimana:2026:2752-5309/ae8322,
author = {Ndagijimana, S and Semakula, M and Ishimwe, C and Sebakunzi, T and Umuhire, VN and Hirwa, SM and Rwema, V and Ndayambaje, JB and Harerimana, JDD and Muhire, A and Ntare, C and Hategekimana, JP and Manzi, J and Nsanzumuhire, V and Braa, K and Braa, B and Sandve, GKF and Qambayot, MA and Desie, S and Kalisa, E and Shuhui, L and Pirani, M and Blangiardo, MAG and Bucyibaruta, G},
doi = {2752-5309/ae8322},
journal = {Environmental Research: Health},
title = {Spatial and spatio-temporal modelling of climate variability and under-five diarrhoeal disease in Rwanda},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/ae8322},
volume = {4},
year = {2026}
}
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - JOUR
AB - Background. Diarrhoeal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five years (U5) in Rwanda, contributing substantially to healthcare utilisation and imposing considerable economic burdens on households and the health system. National estimates indicate that approximately 14.3% of children under five experienced diarrhoea in the two weeks preceding the 2019–2020 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey, and diarrhoea has been reported as the third leading cause of death in this age group. Climate variability may influence the risk of diarrhoeal disease, but evidence on how specific climatic factors affect diarrhoeal incidence across Rwanda’s diverse ecological zones and seasons remains limited. This study examined associations between maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity and U5 diarrhoeal incidence at the sector level in Rwanda. Methods. Monthly counts of U5 diarrhoeal cases reported by health facilities across 416 administrative sectors in Rwanda from January 2015 to December 2024 were analysed together with satellite-derived climate data. Spatio-temporal statistical models were used to evaluate associations between standardised climate variables and diarrhoeal incidence rates while accounting for geographic and seasonal variation. Model comparison relied on both goodness-of-fit metrics and out-of-sample predictive diagnostics. Results. Diarrhoeal incidence showed clear spatial and seasonal patterns, with persistently higher rates in northern and eastern Rwanda. In the final model maximum temperature was positively associated with increased diarrhoeal incidence, with a one-standard-deviation increase corresponding to a 5.6% rise in the estimated incidence rate ratio (RR = 1.056; 95% CrI: 1.02–1.09). Relative humidity showed a protective association (RR ≈ 0.919; 95% CrI: 0.89–0.94), while rainfall showed limited immediate effects. Conclusion. Under-five diarrhoeal inc
AU - Ndagijimana,S
AU - Semakula,M
AU - Ishimwe,C
AU - Sebakunzi,T
AU - Umuhire,VN
AU - Hirwa,SM
AU - Rwema,V
AU - Ndayambaje,JB
AU - Harerimana,JDD
AU - Muhire,A
AU - Ntare,C
AU - Hategekimana,JP
AU - Manzi,J
AU - Nsanzumuhire,V
AU - Braa,K
AU - Braa,B
AU - Sandve,GKF
AU - Qambayot,MA
AU - Desie,S
AU - Kalisa,E
AU - Shuhui,L
AU - Pirani,M
AU - Blangiardo,MAG
AU - Bucyibaruta,G
DO - 2752-5309/ae8322
PY - 2026///
SN - 2752-5309
TI - Spatial and spatio-temporal modelling of climate variability and under-five diarrhoeal disease in Rwanda
T2 - Environmental Research: Health
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/ae8322
UR - https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/ae8322
VL - 4
ER -